A submission based on the model, titled From Sweet As to Oh Bugger – Sector-wide climate scenarios, was shortlisted in the Powerful Partnerships category of the national Green Gown Awards, run by Australasian Campuses Towards Sustainability (ACTS).
Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha | University of Canterbury (UC) hosted regional workshops and contributed to the report.
The analysis contains extensive detail and case studies for each scenario. It shows the importance of restricting temperature rise, and planning for challenges now to manage and reduce future effects. The analysis concludes that, “Aotearoa New Zealand’s tertiary education sector must continue to champion climate mitigation and a fair and just transition for our communities. The sector must also plan for how it can adapt to the impacts of climate change”.
UC Amorangi Toitū | Pro-Vice-Chancellor Sustainability, Professor Jan Evans-Freeman says, “This means that UC has an understanding of what the possible impacts of climate change might be on our communities in New Zealand and gives us clear options of what to do with that knowledge”.
Academic and professional staff and students at all New Zealand universities, wānanga and Te Pūkenga, as well as members of the not-for-profit sector and local government, were involved in the climate scenario work, which explored risks and opportunities at 1.5°C and 3°C degrees warming, for timeframes up to 2090.
Sweet As
The most positive scenario, ‘Sweet As’ is a 1.5°C rise with a planned social transition, which mitigated the effects of myriad sustainability challenges such as weather events, declining biodiversity and scarcity of some foods such as red meat and dairy. The tertiary sector would play a key role in driving social and economic change, especially in providing practical solutions to reduce carbon and options for adapting to climate change.
She’ll be Right
Also at a 1.5°C rise, the ‘She’ll be Right’ scenario shows the effects of an unplanned social transition, resulting in hits to the national economy, higher tax rates, unaffordable housing, and reduced contributions to pension and healthcare for older homeowners. The number of international students would initially decline because of the social stigma and prohibitive costs of air travel but recovers in the longer term. Four universities would close in this model, with larger class sizes and only the best lecturers still working at the remaining institutions.
Yeah, Nah
The ‘Yeah, Nah’ scenario looks at a 3°C rise with a planned social response. Aotearoa would fare better than other countries in food security and weather events, attracting increased international migration. There would be a growing recognition that social cohesion and mental health present as much of a challenge as physical infrastructure, with pastoral care becoming a critical service for students and staff to work through climate anxiety amid rapid and often unpredictable environmental changes. Universities would be replaced by an evolving network of connected communities, which share knowledge and resources locally and internationally.
Oh Bugger!
The most negative scenario occurs when the 3°C rise with high physical impacts is combined with an unplanned social response. Air pollution, inaccessibility of clean water, and lack of basic sanitation would make some cities almost inhabitable. The few surviving tertiary institutions would have all been sold and the sector would be run through private companies, rather than as public sector entities.
The tertiary sector is not currently required to report on climate adaptation by the government’s External Reporting Board, however the sector decided to be proactive and begin this work collaboratively. Individual tertiary organisations will now use the report as a basis for their climate adaptation planning.
Green Gown award winners will be announced on 7 November at the ACTS Conference: The Future of Sustainability.
Read the report Climate Change Scenarios for The Aotearoa New Zealand Tertiary Education Sector.
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 - Climate Action.
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